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Japan Open
32 players · 2 still in
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Final · ATP
How this is calculated
| Carlos Alcaraz | Jiří Lehečka | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1952 (33 m) | 1789 (42 m) |
| Hard-court Elo | 1937 (28 m) | 1777 (28 m) |
| Blended (50/50) | 1945 | 1783 |
| 2026 record | 29–4 | 28–14 |
| Hard-court record | 25–3 · 89% | 19–9 · 68% |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| Last 10 | LWWWWLWWWW | LWLWWLWWWW |
P(Carlos Alcaraz) = 1 / (1 + 10(1783 − 1945) / 400) = 72%. Records, head-to-head and form are shown for context; they already feed the Elo ratings and are not added again. About the model
Players
- 1Carlos Alcaraz ESPNext: final
- 2Frances Tiafoe USALost second round
- 3Taylor Fritz USALost first round
- 4Rafael Jódar ESPLost first round
- 5Brandon Nakashima USALost first round
- 6Casper Ruud NORLost first round
- 7Tommy Paul USALost first round
- 8Valentin Vacherot MONLost semifinals
- Jiří Lehečka CZENext: final
- QAdolfo Daniel Vallejo PARLost quarterfinals
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ESPLost first round
- Alejandro Tabilo CHILost second round
- Alex Michelsen USALost first round
- Alexander Blockx BELLost first round
- Arthur Fery GBRLost first round
- QArthur Fils FRALost quarterfinals
- Denis Shapovalov CANLost quarterfinals
- Holger Rune DENLost first round
- LLJaime Faria PORLost second round
- QJaume Munar ESPLost semifinals
- WCKei Nishikori JPNLost first round
- SEKyrian Jacquet FRALost quarterfinals
- Luca Van Assche FRALost first round
- Luciano Darderi ITALost second round
- Matteo Arnaldi ITALost second round
- Matteo Berrettini ITALost second round
- WCRei Sakamoto JPNLost first round
- WCSho Shimabukuro JPNLost first round
- QStefanos Tsitsipas GRELost second round
- Tomás Martín Etcheverry ARGLost first round
- Ugo Humbert FRALost second round
- Zizou Bergs BELLost first round
Draw by round
Final 0/1 played
- Carlos Alcaraz vs Jiří LehečkaNot played
Semifinals 2/2 played
- Carlos Alcaraz d. Jaume Munar5–7, 6–3, 6–1
- Jiří Lehečka d. Valentin Vacherot6–4, 6–2
Quarterfinals 4/4 played
- Carlos Alcaraz d. Denis Shapovalov7–6(3), 2–1 ret.
- Jaume Munar d. Kyrian Jacquet6–4, 6–2
- Jiří Lehečka d. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo6–1, 6–1
- Valentin Vacherot d. Arthur Fils7–5, 4–6, 6–4
Second round 8/8 played
- Carlos Alcaraz d. Matteo Arnaldi7–6(6), 6–1
- Denis Shapovalov d. Alejandro Tabilo7–5, 3–6, 6–4
- Jaume Munar d. Jaime Faria6–1, 6–1
- Kyrian Jacquet d. Luciano Darderi6–3, 7–6(5)
- Jiří Lehečka d. Ugo Humbert5–7, 6–4, 6–4
- Adolfo Daniel Vallejo d. Matteo Berrettini7–6(6), 6–1
- Valentin Vacherot d. Stefanos Tsitsipas4–6, 7–6(5), 6–4
- Arthur Fils d. Frances Tiafoe6–3, 7–5
First round 16/16 played
- Carlos Alcaraz d. Alex Michelsen7–6(1), 4–6, 6–1
- Matteo Arnaldi d. Rei Sakamoto2–6, 6–4, 6–4
- Denis Shapovalov d. Sho Shimabukuro7–5, 6–1
- Alejandro Tabilo d. Tommy Paul6–1, 6–2
- Jaume Munar d. Taylor Fritz6–7(7), 6–4, 6–3
- Jaime Faria d. Arthur Fery6–4, 3–6, 6–4
- Kyrian Jacquet d. Holger Rune6–3, 6–1
- Luciano Darderi d. Casper Ruud7–6(3), 6–3
- Ugo Humbert d. Brandon Nakashima6–3, 6–2
- Jiří Lehečka d. Zizou Bergs6–3, 6–7(3), 6–3
- Matteo Berrettini d. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina1–6, 7–6(1), 6–4
- Adolfo Daniel Vallejo d. Rafael Jódar6–1, 6–3
- Valentin Vacherot d. Alexander Blockx7–6(2), 7–6(4)
- Stefanos Tsitsipas d. Tomás Martín Etcheverry4–6, 6–3, 6–4
- Arthur Fils d. Luca Van Assche6–3, 6–2
- Frances Tiafoe d. Kei Nishikori6–4, 6–4
Source: Wikipedia, 2026 Japan Open Tennis Championships – Singles · page revised · fetched
How the win probabilities work
Every completed match in the 2026 draws this site covers (2,848 matches from 41 Wikipedia draw pages, walkovers excluded) updates an Elo rating. Everyone starts at 1500; after each match the winner gains and the loser drops K × (1 − expected score), with K = 250 / (matches played + 5)0.4, so a player’s rating moves less as their record grows. A separate rating is kept for hard, clay and grass. For a match, each player’s overall and surface ratings are averaged, and the chance of winning is 1 / (1 + 10(opponent − player) / 400).
Limits: only covered tournaments count (no Challengers, qualifying or most 250s), every rating starts fresh in January, and injuries or retirements mid-event are not modelled. Treat the numbers as an estimate, not a forecast.