Court Atlas2026 season

HomeSeason MapShanghai Masters

Shanghai, China · ATP 1000

Shanghai Masters

UpcomingOct 7–18, 2026HardATP singles draw ↓

84 players · 84 still in

ATP singles

First matches

First round · ATP

Zhang Zhizhen (WC)31%
Tomáš Macháč69%
How this is calculated
Zhang ZhizhenTomáš Macháč
Overall Elo1268 (9 m)1506 (24 m)
Hard-court Elo1391 (6 m)1428 (16 m)
Blended (50/50)13291467
2026 record1–813–11
Hard-court record1–5 · 17%8–8 · 50%
Head-to-head00
Last 10LWLLLLLLLWLWLWWLLLL

P(Zhang Zhizhen) = 1 / (1 + 10(1467 − 1329) / 400) = 31%. Records, head-to-head and form are shown for context; they already feed the Elo ratings and are not added again. About the model

First round · ATP

Aleksandar Kovacevic31%
Matteo Berrettini69%
How this is calculated
Aleksandar KovacevicMatteo Berrettini
Overall Elo1396 (24 m)1564 (31 m)
Hard-court Elo1421 (21 m)1531 (12 m)
Blended (50/50)14081548
2026 record9–1517–14
Hard-court record9–12 · 43%6–6 · 50%
Head-to-head00
Last 10WLLLLLLWLLWWLLWLWLWL

P(Aleksandar Kovacevic) = 1 / (1 + 10(1548 − 1408) / 400) = 31%. Records, head-to-head and form are shown for context; they already feed the Elo ratings and are not added again. About the model

First round · ATP

Arthur Fery44%
Marin Čilić56%
How this is calculated
Arthur FeryMarin Čilić
Overall Elo1577 (13 m)1513 (24 m)
Hard-court Elo1410 (7 m)1560 (17 m)
Blended (50/50)14931537
2026 record7–612–12
Hard-court record2–5 · 29%9–8 · 53%
Head-to-head00
Last 10WWWWWLWLLLWLWWLLLWLL

P(Arthur Fery) = 1 / (1 + 10(1537 − 1493) / 400) = 44%. Records, head-to-head and form are shown for context; they already feed the Elo ratings and are not added again. About the model

First round · ATP

Holger Rune (PR)62%
Daniel Altmaier38%

Low confidence: one player has fewer than 8 rated matches.

How this is calculated
Holger RuneDaniel Altmaier
Overall Elo1402 (1 m)1307 (19 m)
Hard-court Elo1404 (1 m)1330 (11 m)
Blended (50/50)14031318
2026 record0–13–16
Hard-court record0–1 · 0%2–9 · 18%
Head-to-head00
Last 10LLWLLLWLWLL

P(Holger Rune) = 1 / (1 + 10(1318 − 1403) / 400) = 62%. Records, head-to-head and form are shown for context; they already feed the Elo ratings and are not added again. About the model

First round · ATP

Arthur Géa50%
Jaime Faria50%
How this is calculated
Arthur GéaJaime Faria
Overall Elo1590 (12 m)1596 (20 m)
Hard-court Elo1599 (11 m)1600 (11 m)
Blended (50/50)15951598
2026 record7–511–9
Hard-court record7–4 · 64%6–5 · 55%
Head-to-head00
Last 10WWLLWWWLWLLLWWWLWLWL

P(Arthur Géa) = 1 / (1 + 10(1598 − 1595) / 400) = 50%. Records, head-to-head and form are shown for context; they already feed the Elo ratings and are not added again. About the model

First round · ATP

Sho Shimabukuro (WC)28%
Miomir Kecmanović72%
How this is calculated
Sho ShimabukuroMiomir Kecmanović
Overall Elo1268 (10 m)1431 (28 m)
Hard-court Elo1276 (9 m)1444 (21 m)
Blended (50/50)12721438
2026 record1–911–17
Hard-court record1–8 · 11%9–12 · 43%
Head-to-head01
Last 10LLWLLLLLLLWLWLLWLWLL

P(Sho Shimabukuro) = 1 / (1 + 10(1438 − 1272) / 400) = 28%. Records, head-to-head and form are shown for context; they already feed the Elo ratings and are not added again. About the model

First round · ATP

Hubert Hurkacz78%
James Duckworth22%
How this is calculated
Hubert HurkaczJames Duckworth
Overall Elo1666 (30 m)1462 (18 m)
Hard-court Elo1603 (18 m)1370 (14 m)
Blended (50/50)16351416
2026 record15–156–12
Hard-court record8–10 · 44%4–10 · 29%
Head-to-head00
Last 10WLWLWLWWWLWLWLWLWLWL

P(Hubert Hurkacz) = 1 / (1 + 10(1416 − 1635) / 400) = 78%. Records, head-to-head and form are shown for context; they already feed the Elo ratings and are not added again. About the model

First round · ATP

Jaume Munar82%
Jenson Brooksby18%
How this is calculated
Jaume MunarJenson Brooksby
Overall Elo1652 (22 m)1404 (21 m)
Hard-court Elo1696 (15 m)1414 (15 m)
Blended (50/50)16741409
2026 record13–97–14
Hard-court record10–5 · 67%5–10 · 33%
Head-to-head00
Last 10WWLWWLWWWLLLLWWLWLLL

P(Jaume Munar) = 1 / (1 + 10(1409 − 1674) / 400) = 82%. Records, head-to-head and form are shown for context; they already feed the Elo ratings and are not added again. About the model

Players

Draw by round

First round 0/20 played

Source: Wikipedia, 2026 Rolex Shanghai Masters – Singles · page revised · fetched

How the win probabilities work

Every completed match in the 2026 draws this site covers (2,848 matches from 41 Wikipedia draw pages, walkovers excluded) updates an Elo rating. Everyone starts at 1500; after each match the winner gains and the loser drops K × (1 − expected score), with K = 250 / (matches played + 5)0.4, so a player’s rating moves less as their record grows. A separate rating is kept for hard, clay and grass. For a match, each player’s overall and surface ratings are averaged, and the chance of winning is 1 / (1 + 10(opponent − player) / 400).

Limits: only covered tournaments count (no Challengers, qualifying or most 250s), every rating starts fresh in January, and injuries or retirements mid-event are not modelled. Treat the numbers as an estimate, not a forecast.

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