HomeSeason MapChina Open (ATP)
Beijing, China · ATP 500
China Open (ATP)
32 players · 2 still in
ATP singles
Next matches
Final · ATP
How this is calculated
| Novak Djokovic | Alex de Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1819 (25 m) | 1747 (36 m) |
| Hard-court Elo | 1786 (15 m) | 1748 (25 m) |
| Blended (50/50) | 1802 | 1748 |
| 2026 record | 18–7 | 24–12 |
| Hard-court record | 11–4 · 73% | 18–7 · 72% |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| Last 10 | WWWLLLWWWW | LWWLWLWWWW |
P(Novak Djokovic) = 1 / (1 + 10(1748 − 1802) / 400) = 58%. Records, head-to-head and form are shown for context; they already feed the Elo ratings and are not added again. About the model
Players
- 1Alexander Zverev GERLost quarterfinals
- 2Félix Auger-Aliassime CANLost first round
- 3Daniil Medvedev Lost semifinals
- 4Flavio Cobolli ITALost first round
- 5Alex de Minaur AUSNext: final
- 6Novak Djokovic SRBNext: final
- 8Jakub Menšík CZELost second round
- QAlex Molčan SVKLost second round
- Alexander Bublik KAZLost first round
- Andrey Rublev Lost quarterfinals
- QArthur Géa FRALost second round
- QBotic van de Zandschulp NEDLost first round
- WCBu Yunchaokete CHNLost second round
- Cameron Norrie GBRLost first round
- Francisco Cerúndolo ARGLost quarterfinals
- Hubert Hurkacz POLLost semifinals
- Ignacio Buse PERLost first round
- Jan-Lennard Struff GERLost second round
- Juan Manuel Cerúndolo ARGLost first round
- Karen Khachanov Lost quarterfinals
- 7/WCLearner Tien USALost first round
- Mariano Navone ARGLost first round
- Nuno Borges PORLost first round
- QPablo Carreño Busta ESPLost first round
- Quentin Halys FRALost second round
- SERoman Safiullin Lost second round
- Sebastián Báez ARGLost first round
- WCShang Juncheng CHNLost second round
- Tallon Griekspoor NEDLost first round
- Thiago Agustín Tirante ARGLost first round
- LLTomáš Macháč CZELost first round
- WCZhang Zhizhen CHNLost first round
Draw by round
Final 0/1 played
- Novak Djokovic vs Alex de MinaurNot played
Semifinals 2/2 played
- Novak Djokovic d. Daniil Medvedev7–5, 5–3 def.
- Alex de Minaur d. Hubert Hurkacz6–4, 3–2 ret.
Quarterfinals 4/4 played
- Novak Djokovic d. Alexander Zverev4–6, 6–4, 6–4
- Daniil Medvedev d. Francisco Cerúndolo7–6(4), 6–3
- Alex de Minaur d. Andrey Rublev1–6, 6–2, 6–3
- Hubert Hurkacz d. Karen Khachanov7–6(2), 6–2
Second round 8/8 played
- Alexander Zverev d. Shang Juncheng6–0, 6–3
- Novak Djokovic d. Bu Yunchaokete4–6, 7–6(2), 6–2
- Daniil Medvedev d. Jan-Lennard Struff6–4, 6–3
- Francisco Cerúndolo d. Jakub Menšík6–3, 6–3
- Alex de Minaur d. Quentin Halys3–6, 7–6(5), 7–5
- Andrey Rublev d. Roman Safiullin6–2, 3–6, 6–4
- Hubert Hurkacz d. Arthur Géa7–6(5), 6–7(5), 6–2
- Karen Khachanov d. Alex Molčan7–5, 6–3
First round 16/16 played
- Alexander Zverev d. Cameron Norrie7–6(1), 6–4
- Shang Juncheng d. Sebastián Báez5–7, 6–3, 7–5
- Bu Yunchaokete d. Juan Manuel Cerúndolo6–2, 5–7, 6–4
- Novak Djokovic d. Nuno Borges6–3, 7–6(2)
- Daniil Medvedev d. Pablo Carreño Busta6–4, 6–2
- Jan-Lennard Struff d. Thiago Agustín Tirante6–1, 6–4
- Francisco Cerúndolo d. Botic van de Zandschulp5–7, 6–4, 6–3
- Jakub Menšík d. Alexander Bublik6–4, 7–6(5)
- Alex de Minaur d. Mariano Navone7–6(4), 6–2
- Quentin Halys d. Ignacio Buse6–1, 7–6(3)
- Andrey Rublev d. Tallon Griekspoor6–4, 5–7, 7–6(6)
- Roman Safiullin d. Flavio Cobolli6–3, 6–2
- Hubert Hurkacz d. Learner Tien5–7, 6–3, 6–4
- Arthur Géa d. Zhang Zhizhen6–4, 6–3
- Alex Molčan d. Tomáš Macháč6–3, 6–2
- Karen Khachanov d. Félix Auger-Aliassime6–3, 6–3
Source: Wikipedia, 2026 China Open – Men's singles · page revised · fetched
How the win probabilities work
Every completed match in the 2026 draws this site covers (2,848 matches from 41 Wikipedia draw pages, walkovers excluded) updates an Elo rating. Everyone starts at 1500; after each match the winner gains and the loser drops K × (1 − expected score), with K = 250 / (matches played + 5)0.4, so a player’s rating moves less as their record grows. A separate rating is kept for hard, clay and grass. For a match, each player’s overall and surface ratings are averaged, and the chance of winning is 1 / (1 + 10(opponent − player) / 400).
Limits: only covered tournaments count (no Challengers, qualifying or most 250s), every rating starts fresh in January, and injuries or retirements mid-event are not modelled. Treat the numbers as an estimate, not a forecast.